American Shipbuilding Association

CONTACT:
Cynthia L. Brown
202-544-8170

Findings of Forums Revealed on March 19, 1998

(Washington, DC, March 23, 1998) – Cynthia L. Brown, President of the American Shipbuilding Association, announced today that the forum series on American Sea Power in the 21st Century revealed that the risk to America’s national security grows increasingly greater as ship production rates remain below 10 to 12 ships per year.

On March 19th, before a standing room only audience on Capitol Hill, Ron O’Rourke, naval analyst for the Congressional Research Service, summarized the findings of leading congressional, military officers, and defense experts at the first and second forums on Sea Power. "If there is one relevant fact or figure around which this entire series of forums has revolved it is that of maintaining a fleet of 300 ships will require a significantly higher shipbuilding rate than currently planned – a rate of 10 to 12 ship per year is essential," said O’Rourke. Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Research, Development and Acquisition, John Douglass, added that an additional $3 billion to $5 billion is needed annually for the Navy’s shipbuilding program, and "it will have to come from somewhere."

O’Rourke said that military experts had noted that a 300-ship fleet, with 12 carrier battle groups and 12 amphibious ready groups, was not sufficient to maintain the full level of forward presence desired by the regional Commanders-in-Chief, and that the United States is consequently forced to engage in risk management when deciding where to deploy its naval forces. The forum speakers pointed to the recent Iraq situation as a case in point. With only 12 aircraft carrier battle groups, the ships sent to the Persian Gulf had to be diverted from other regions of the world where their forward presence was also required. The duration required for these aircraft carrier battle groups to stay on station in the Gulf is also stretching thin U.S. naval forces.

In spite of actions by the Navy and industry to improve affordability, forum speakers expressed serious concerns about the ability of the Navy to maintain a fleet of 300 ships in the future. Several noted that the currently planned build rate of five to seven ships per year, if maintained, will reduce the Navy to fewer than 200 ships.

Dr. Paul Kaminski, former Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Technology, pointed out the versatility and increased operational requirements of naval forces when he said: "When other countries deny us the use of their air space or bases, America goes by sea." "Sea power," he said, "means deterrence and endurance…. No substantial forward battle of any duration today can be fought without sea power." He also noted that sea power, including sealift, was important not only for fighting conflicts, but for other kinds of contingencies, such as humanitarian crisis response operations. In sum, he said, "Sea power is the underpinning of our national security policy. Sea power is growing ever more critical in meeting the threats of today, and into the 21st Century."

Senator John Warner (R-VA) said, "There is no single military force today that is better configured to move quickly to address instability than the Navy-Marine Corps team – collectively referred to as sea power." Speaker after speaker referenced the crisis in Iraq, and the 1996 threat to Taiwan by China as prime examples of the importance of sea power.

Senator Thad Cochran (R-MS) added, "If the Untied States is going to continue to bring peace to troubled regions of the world, we have to have more ships."

In fiscal year 1994, the U.S. Navy began to fall below the required 8.6 annual steady-rate for a 300-ship fleet, and is programmed to remain below that rate through fiscal year 2003, observed O’Rourke. A steady-state procurement rate of 8.6 ships over ten years would total 86 ships. Instead, said O’Rourke, the Navy is on track to procure a total of 57 ships during this period, resulting in a 29-ship shortfall that will have to be made up with increased annual average shipbuilding rates. "The earlier steps are taken to redress the shortfall, the easier it is to catch up," said O’Rourke. But, according to O’Rourke, the Department of Defense long-term planning does not call for an increase to the 8.6 ship per year build rate for an additional 12 years beyond the current five-year spending plan. "This means," he said, "that the 29-ship shortfall accumulated by fiscal year 2003 will grow to a 56-ship deficit by 2015."

In spite of these shortfalls, Navy Under Secretary Jerry Hultin stressed that "ships are going to be the future of this nation’s defense."

Quoting Congressman Ike Skelton (D-MO): "The disconnect between requirements and budgets should not continue; the perils are too high. Ignoring the problem," he said, "will not make it disappear."

In closing O’Rourke stated: "For those who support maintaining a highly capable Navy of at least 300 ships over the long run, it seems that more than anything this seminar series is about identifying those compelling arguments so that the people in positions of responsibility can carry those arguments forward – be heard – and resolve this issue before it is too late."