China’s Navy Will Overtake US Fleet by 2015…
Are Numbers Notional?
Twenty years ago, President Ronald Reagan called for a 600 ship Navy. According to Reagan:
Maritime superiority is for us a necessity. We must be able in time of emergency to venture in harm’s way, controlling air, surface and subsurface areas to assure access to all the oceans of the world. Failure to do so will leave the credibility of our conventional forces in doubt.”
Today the fleet is down to 297 ships, despite the 375-ship Navy called for by the Chief of Naval Operations, and if the current trend continues, we will be at 250 by 2010 with only 30 submarines.
Why Is This Downward Trend Important?
The Chinese have been officially modernizing their military for two-and-a-half decades. By the end of the 1980’s this modernization had begun to dramatically accelerate with annual defense budget increases of around 15%, according to China’s own accounts. However, the budget understates the actual defense-related spending and does not include major spending categories, such as weapons research and foreign weapon purchases, or manpower costs. In addition, the Chinese military receives funding or materials from other internal government sources. Despite the uncertainty as to precise figures, China now ranks third globally in defense spending, behind the U.S. and Russia.
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy is modernizing to enhance regional power projection, anticipating operations against a technologically sophisticated adversary – the United States. According to a 2003 report issued by the Congressional Research Service, the Chinese naval fleet presently has around 72 warships. Based on current build rates and mission objectives, a Federation of American Scientists study projected that by 2010 China’s naval inventory will include approximately 159 warships; consisting primarily of surface combatants and submarines.
Little is known about the country’s aircraft carrier program. However, it is speculated that one to two may be included in their future year shipbuilding plans. The Chinese have had ample opportunity to study the construction and designs of carriers. In 1988, the HMAS Melbourne was sold by Australia to China for scrapping. The ship remained in China’s possession in 1994 – being studied by naval designers. Two ex-Soviet carriers, Minsk and Varyag (which was not completed at the time of sale) have also been in the possession of the Chinese.
Submarines play an important role in the PLA’s future concepts. In an important advancement, China reached an agreement with Russia in 2002 for eight new submarines. China is expected to incorporate the Russian technology into its own designs. According to DOD’s Annual Report on the Military Power of the People’s Republic of China, four modern destroyers were purchased from the Russians, immediately boosting the capability of the Chinese fleet to operate further out in the South China Sea, away from land-based air defenses. A new class of indigenously developed stealthy destroyers was launched in 2002, with technologies believed to match the U.S. Aegis system.
The Chinese strategy seeks to weaken the American presence in the region and simultaneously extend Chinese influence through an ever-expanding military capability in international waters. According to a quote that appeared in Hong Kong’s Ta Kung Pao daily newspaper, May 13, 2003, Maj. Gen. Huang Bin, a professor at the PLA National Defense University stated, “We have the ability to deal with an aircraft carrier that dares to get into our range of fire.” This sentiment was echoed by Richard Fisher, Asian Security Studies Fellow at the Center for Security Policy, “The forces that China is putting in place right now will probably be more than sufficient to deal with a single American aircraft carrier battle group.”
Secretary of the Navy, Gordon England, has claimed that in relation to the size of the U.S. naval fleet, “numbers are notional.” America’s fleet has been on the decline since the 1990’s, with only 6 ships being purchased each year, on average. Based on current budget estimates, in 2010, the U.S. naval fleet is estimated to number approximately 250 ships, with our submarine fleet numbering 30. The projected Chinese submarine force by 2010 is expected to be 62. The entire Chinese naval fleet, based on a projected procurement of 12 ships a year, will surpass the size of the U.S. fleet by 2015. In short, the Chinese military is the only one being developed anywhere in the world today that is specifically being configured to fight the United States of America.
As former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Henry H. Shelton stated in a 1997 address, “the greatest threat America faces today is complacency.” The opening of the 21st Century taught America some cruel lessons. The question remains how shall we respond? Will we go boldly into the future, secure in the knowledge that we are prepared to meet the challenges ahead? Or will we allow the current trend to continue, hoping that we can “make do” with a diminishing number of resources against a soon to be superior naval opponent?
Sources: Congressional Research Services; Federation of American Scientists; Department of Defense FY 04 Annual Report on the Military Power of the People's Republic of China; Federation of American Scientists.
Only Four Ships for FY 06
The Navy’s proposed budget, submitted to the Secretary of Defense in early August requests only four ships and approximately $6 billion for FY 2006. Included in this request are one Virginia-class submarine, one LPD-17, one T-AKE, and one littoral combat ship. The Navy also proposed delaying or cutting several shipbuilding programs between FY 06- FY 11. Construction funding for the next generation aircraft carrier, CVN-21, has been pushed from FY 07-08 to FY 08-09. The purchase of the first of the next generation of surface combatants, DD(X) was pushed from FY 05 to FY 07. The proposed budget only purchases seven destroyers, rather than the eleven originally planned. The LPD program has been reduced from 12 ships to 10. The new class of maritime pre-positioning force (MPF(F)), has been delayed from FY 07 to FY 09, leaving only four vessels in the program.
The Navy has been claiming that budgetary rules are impairing its ability to purchase the ships it needs, and the service may push for new methods for funding the construction of its vessels. It has been rumored that this is one reason why the Navy is asking for so few ships – seeking leverage to change acquisition and funding practices. Another speculation is that this may be a ploy by the Navy to parlay more funds for the shipbuilding account.
Lexington Institute:
Shipbuilding: The Navy Needs Help Now
In a Lexington Institute brief authored by Loren B. Thompson, the following analysis was made regarding the Navy’s FY 06 proposed budget of only four ships.
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The Bush Administration undoubtedly will argue that shipbuilding is programmed to increase in future years, just as the Clinton Administration always claimed until the years in question actually arrive. But the Navy’s 2006-2011 spending plan doesn’t exactly ooze optimism on that score. Among other things, it delays funding construction of a new class of aircraft carriers (the first in 30 years), delays a planned increase in submarine construction to two per year (from the current one per year), delays construction of next-generation destroyers (maybe forever), delays construction of a new class of maritime prepositioning ships, and proposes early termination of a class of amphibious vessels already in production.
So much for the Bush defense buildup. Apparently deferring modernization of major military systems has become a bipartisan phenomenon. At least during the Clinton years the U.S. was shrinking a fleet that really was oversized for the post-communist world. But having rightsized the fleet, budget planners are now inventing new excuses to continue the Navy’s contraction. Under a so-called “6+2” posture, one of the Navy’s aircraft carriers will be rationalized into oblivion, leaving the service with a mere eleven flattops to cover the world (three of which are in maintenance at any given time). Meanwhile, the forward-basing of submarines at Guam is being advanced as a reason for letting the number of attack subs in the fleet fall to the low forties, and maybe even lower.
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Like the other military services, the Navy has entered a budgetary death spiral in which skyrocketing personnel costs and aging equipment are undercutting the investments needed for future warfighting effectiveness. The service wants to reduce its headcount, but that partly depends on buying new ship classes that require less manning. It wants to have the benefits of new technology, but money keeps draining away to maintenance of the existing fleet. It is a measure of just how desperate things have become that Navy leaders thought their best option was to not buy ships…
Well Said!
“Since its birth as a Nation, the United States has relied on the oceans
for commerce and as avenues for the protection of national interests.
The United States is truly a maritime power by necessity.”
President Ronald Reagan
May 21, 1985
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